Agricultural Commodities Technical Reviews 17 october

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Agricultural Commodities Technical Reviews 17 october

NCDEX-AGRI-TIPS-TRIFIDRESEARCHChana

November Chana futures traded on a flat note and settled slightly higher at 0.03 % on Tuesday . Expectations of lower planting due to switch to other crops , and demand prices paid holidays . However, supplies remain ample to meet demand , capping sharp gains.Prices negotiated on an optimistic note last week due to festive demand and buying in physical markets . Expectations of delayed planting also supported prices . The demand for pulses especially Chana usually increases during the festive season.According the first advance estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture , 2013-14 kharif pulse crop is expected at 6 mn tn against 5.9 mn tn last year . the Union Cabinet has approved the proposal to extend actions to limit the celebration of pulses , edible oils and oilseeds for another year until the end of September 2014.As a NCDEX circular dated August 21, 2013 , Special margin of 5 % on the short side has been removed previously imposed in Chana , from the start of Friday August 23 , 2013.As per the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture , the area under kharif pulses stood at 106.65 lakh hectares as the October 11, 2013 , by 4.91 percent compared to the same period last year.Sowing of kharif pulses in Maharashtra as on September 18 was observed 18.75 lakh hectares , an increase of 2 % compared to the period corresponding period last year .

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Legumes , India is set to produce record crop for the second year in 2013-14 as sowing kharif season course is excellent driven by good rains . Furthermore, the level of favorable soil moisture has reason bumper Rabi crop too.In value terms, India imported $ 2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13 , almost 28 % higher over $ 1.85 billion in the previous year . However, imports could fall into the 2013-14 season on expectations of higher Legumes output.Kharif witnessed a marginal decline in output was offset by a significant increase in Rabi production , especially during the back Chana 2012-13 . higher won in 2012 , along with a rise in MSP helped expand the total area chana in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65 % higher at 95.17 lakh has been compared with previous year.As by estimates , Chana production was set at a record 8.8 mn tn compared to preliminary estimates third of 8,490 000 tonnes and previous record of 8.2 mn tons in 2010-11 .

Outlook

It is expected that Chana futures trade on a positive note due to festive demand in the physical markets. Expectations of delay and a lower seeding may also support prices. Comfortable supplies can meet demand, however , the cap mouth sharp . Weather conditions in major chana producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra need to be followed carefully .

Technical levels valid for the October 17, 2013 Contract Support Unit Resistance November Chana Futures `/ QTL 3060-3100 3170-3200

Market Highlights as on Oct 15, 2013% change unit WoW MoM year Last Prev days Chana Spot - NCDEX `/ QTL -2.44 0.34 -0.77 -34.35 3126 Chana - Oct'13 NCDEX Fut ` / QTL 3052 0.33 2.55 -0.84 -37.74

 

Spread Matrix and in October 15, 2013 closing 18 -Oct -13 20 - Nov -13 20 -Dec-13 Spot 3125.85 57.15 5.15 -73.85 18 -Oct -13 3,052 0 79 131 20 - Nov - 13 3131-0 52 20 - Dec- 13 3183-0

 

Stock position at NCDEX warehouse, October 11, 2013 as the tenth Quantity Situation Actions October in processing actions as the October 8 Bikaner process Quantity 24,475 160 30,195 45,296 160 309 44,793 30 30 111 Indore Delhi 8436 0938 8326 0 Total 77 594 190 83,927,190

soybean

November soybean futures corrected on Tuesday and settled 1.01 % lower on improving weather conditions in Madhya Pradesh , along with the end pressure . Excessive rains in MP in recent days interrupted the progress of the crop and raised fears crop damage . Demand for oil processing industry also supported the Ministry of Agriculture published its first estimates prices.The early on September 24 , by which 2013-14 soybean production is estimated at 15.68 mn tn against 14 , 67 mn tn in 2012 - solvent extraction 13.According ' Association of India exports soybean meal increased to 173 381 tons in September, up from 6,525 tonnes last year . The oil meal exports amounted to 294 830 tonnes in September.As by data published by the Ministry of Agriculture , the area of ​​oil was recorded at 194.94 acres, October 11, 2013 , up 10.07 % with over the same period last year . Soybean planting nationwide 14.3 % more than the 122.2 hectares compared to 106.9 lakh hectares last year .

International Markets

CBOT soybean futures settled 0.75 % higher on Wednesday tracking higher soybean oil prices . However, harvest pressure and expectations of better planting in Brazil and Argentina top gains.Analysts acute harvest estimate by 20 % this week , compared with 11% last week ( the USDA ) . USDA does not release data U.S. government shutdown . Earlier, the USDA report linked actions soybean stocks at 141 mn bushels, 14 % higher than estimated as the first Sept.The monthly USDA crop keeps the surface to 77.2 mn acres unchanged from their previous estimates . Harvest estimates have been cut to 3,149 bushels bn previous estimates of 3,255 bushels bn. 2013-14 Forecast ending stocks were also reduced from 220 bushels in August mn 150 mn bushels.

Outlook

Soybean futures may trade in a mixed tone . The lack of availability of low-moisture harvesting and demand for oil processors can support prices. However, improved weather conditions and stronger rupee may push prices . Short-term trend remains bearish soybeans on expectations of improving arrivals in the domestic market .

 

Rape / Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed Futures correct November on Tuesday on profit taking and settled 0.38 % lower. Prices have gained in recent days on the oil industry demand and higher prices of oilseeds. Ministry of Agriculture in its fourth advance estimates , linked to the production of mustard 7.82 mn tons , an increase of 18.4 % compared to 2011-12 season.According to a circular issued by NCDEX there are some changes in specifications quality and premium / discount for contracts expiring in April 2014 onwards.

Outlook

Mustard futures may continue to operate positively in the demand for oil processors . However, expectations of better planting can limit the upward and push prices to higher levels .

Technical levels valid for the October 17, 2013 Contract Support Unit Resistance NCDEX November Soybean Futures `/ qtl 3520-3560 from 3640-3790 NCDEX November RM Seed Futures ` / QTL 3600-3640 3710-374

Market Highlights as the October 15, 2013

% ChangeLast Prev days Unit MoM WoW Spot- NCDEX soybean year `/ QTL 0.00 1.52 -0.22 14.98 3600 Soybean - October '13 Fut NCDEX ` / QTL 14.37 3583 2.84 -0.35 -0.62 CBOT soy Nov'13 Fut USC / Bsh 1,277 0.75-0.87 -5.32 -14.54 Spot- NCDEX RM Seed `/ QTL 1.55 1.55 -0.18 -14.12 3721 RM Seed - NCDEX Oct'13 Fut `/ QTL 3567 -0.75 0.79 2.06 -14.67

Matrix Spread Soybeans

as the October 15, 2013 closing 18 -Oct -13 20 - Nov -13 20 -Dec-13 Cash 3,600 42 -17.5 4.5 18 -Oct -13 22 0 59.5 3582.5 20 - Nov -13 3.604 , 5-0 37.5 20 -Dec - 13 3642-0

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

as the October 15, 2013 closing 18 -Oct -13 20 - Nov -13 20 -Dec-13 3720.65 -153.65 -48.65 Spot 17.35 18 -Oct -13 3,567 0,105,171 20 - Nov- 13 3672-0 66 20 -Dec -13 3738-0

RM Seed NCDEX stock position in store, October 11, 2013 Situation Actions October 10 as the Number of Shares of processes such as the October 8 Number in Alwar process 0 1575 0251 1505 0251 Bharatpur Bikaner 0210 0251 0442 0442 Jaipur Hapur 0 26 438 91 26 438 91 Kota 290 0 290 0 100 0 120 Sriganganagar 0 29,236 91 29,367 91 Total

Refined soybean oil

Oil futures Ref November soybean witnessed marginal gains 0.24 % on Tuesday on the feast of demand and a weaker dollar. Soybean prices cap gains and lower prices under pressure at higher levels.

India meets 50-55 percent of their food consumption through imports and therefore the rupee factor is an important determinant of edible oil prices. As data released by the Association of India extractors "Imports vegetable oils, including non-edible oils jumped 14 % to 863,917 tons in September. Monthly imports of soybean oil increased 10.39% in local supplies are low due to the reduced availability of new soybean oil crop. Stockpiles edible ports on the October 1 stood at 515,000 tons , the trade body said , over 505,000 tn September 1 .

Outlook

It is expected that soybean oil futures to trade sideways with a positive bias in the festive sight account . However, the expectations of a rebound in the arrival of soybeans in the coming days could limit the upside. Prices can also be signs of movement in rupee .

Crude Palm Oil

CPO futures traded with a positive bias on Tuesday and settled 0.27 % higher tracking positive edible oil prices and weak oil futures settled KLCE Rupee.Palm at 1.05% on Wednesday on strong export demand along with fears of a lower than expected stocks.At ending Globoil recent conference India, Mistry dorab low estimates of palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia , about 2 % and 3.3 % , respectively , for calendar year 2013 , but expects global production of palm oil to increase 3.5 to 2013/14 . Exports of Malaysian palm oil from 1 to 10 October rose 17.2% to 542,274 tonnes from 462,471 tonnes shipped between September 1 to 10 . Malaysia has set the export tax for palm oil at 4.5 % in October , unchanged from March.According Malaysian Palm Oil Board , exports increased by 5.2 % in September compared to August, while that palm oil production increased 10.2% and ending stocks increased 7 % below refined palm oil imports expectations.India market ' s dropped 33.03 % in August to 143,215 tons from 213,853 tons in July as a weaker rupee made ​​imports expensive.

Outlook

The palm oil prices may negotiate with a tone mixed with negative bias due to general weakness in international markets , and a strong rupee . However, the festive demand and high prices of edible oil in the domestic market may limit the downside. Seasonally longer period of palm oil production in Malaysia can hold down intact in international markets in the short term and the contagion effect can be seen in the edible oil markets .

Technical Outlook validity of October 17, 2013 Contract Support Unit Resistance NCDEX November Soybean Oil Futures `/ qtl 692-696 703-708 October CPO Futures MCX ` / QTL 514-517 524-527

Market Highlights as the October 15, 2013

% ChangeLast Prev days Unit MoM WoW annual Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Spot- `/ 10 kg 2.44 5.02 0.17 6.89 712,70 Ref NCDEX soy oil in October '13 Fut ` / 10 kg 708.25 - 6.96 3.46 2.01 0.23 Soybean Oil - CBOT - Oct'13 Fut USC / bushel 2.02 1.75 -1.80 -18.03 41.37 CPO- Bursa Malaysia - Oct '13 Fut MYR / ton 2.13 1.05 1.69 2400 0.00 Oct MCX CPO Futures '13 ' / 10 kg 521.30 24.89 0.27 -1.36 0.71

Spread Matrix Refined Soybean Oil

as the October 15, 2013 closing 18 -Oct -13 20 - Nov -13 20 -Dec-13 spot -21.45 -4.45 -12.1 712.7 18 -Oct -13 708.25 -7.65 -17 0 20 - Nov -13 700.6-0 - 9.35 20 - Dec -13 691.25-0

CPO Spread Matrix as the October 15, 2013 Closing 30 - Sep - 13 31 - Oct- 13 30 - Nov - 13 30 - Sep -13 521.3 0 0.1 -0.1 31 -Oct -13 521.4 -0.2 -0 30 - Nov -13 521.2 to 0

Jeera

November Jeera futures traded on a mixed note and settled 0.15 % lower on Tuesday about the prospects of better planting and higher than expected arrivals . However, the export and festive demand in domestic markets supported prices at lower levels . According to a circular issued by NCDEX there are some changes in specifications and forecasting quality of contracts expiring in March 2014 and thereafter.1 % Jeera of Indian origin in Singapore provides $ 2.200-2.250 / t ( FOB mother ), while in Europe $ 2.350-2.400 / t ( CNF ) . The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in global markets increasing supply concerns these two major exporting countries . Export orders are diverted to India. Also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey.

Arrivals , production and exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 6,000 bags on Tuesday . Jeera exports between April-June 2013 amounted to 28,000 tons , 22,396 tons asagainst during the same period last year . Production of jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags ( 55 kilos each) , marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Stocks end 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags .

Outlook

Jeera can operate on a mixed note with negative bias on the prospects of improved planting and higher arrivals . However, the delay in planting along with the demand for exports could support the prices at lower levels .

turmeric

Turmeric futures traded on a negative note on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous day and settled 0.51 % lower because of huge carryover stocks. Reports that there is no damage caused by Cyclone prices.According Phailin also pressure to a circular issued by NCDEX there are some changes in the quality specifications of the contracts expiring in April 2014 onwards.

 

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad were reported for 1,000 bags on Tuesday . Planting turmeric AP reported 0.53 lakh ha as on October 9 , compared to 0.58 lakh hectares last year and normal planting ha.Production 0.68 lakh in 2012-13 was reported around 45 lakh bags , up to 40-50 %. Carryover of the current year is estimated around 10 lakh bags . ( 1 bag = 75 kgs) . Exports between April-June 2013 amounted to 17,500 tons , down from 24,982 tons in April-June 2012.

Outlook

Turmeric futures may continue to decline because of the huge number of stocks, and there are no reports of damage to crops due to cyclone Phailin . However, export and domestic demand can also keep prices at lower levels

Technical Outlook Valid for October 17, 2013 Unit Support Resistance November NCDEX Jeera Futures `/ qtl 12750-12880 13080-13150 November NCDEX Turmeric Futures ` / QTL 4590-4650 4770-4840

sugar

November Sugar futures recovered from lower levels on Tuesday due to short covering and settled 0.42 % higher . Prices fell sharply in recent months , pressured by ample supplies and the sale of the millers . The industry body revised up sugar production at 25 mn tn against its previous forecast of 23.7 mn tn . The food ministry has asked the DGFT to relax export rules to help reduce surplus.According the first Advance estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture , the production of sugarcane for 2013-14 at 341.77 mn tn vs 338.96 mn tn last year.Considering a sharp fall in the domestic as well as world sugar prices , millers are seeking government intervention in the form of building buffer stocks 2 mn tn to rescue the sugar industry or increased import duties on sugar or import ban for two years. In the third year of production surpluses in 2012-13 , India may have reservations over 8 mn tn which is more than 20 % of normal initial balance . Therefore, the creation of a buffer or other movement can bring some relief to the sugar industry already reeling under the impact of rising production costs of raw material ( sugarcane) .

According to the Ministry of Agriculture , sugarcane has been planted in 48.74 ha as the October 11, 2013 , which is 2.64 % lower than last year .

Domestic production and exports

A good monsoon this season has raised prospects of increased production for the fourth consecutive year in a row in 2013-14 . According to the latest estimates of the ISMA , production is estimated 25 mn tn for 2013-14 season , at the same level in 2012-13 despite the lower surface under cane.ISMA has estimated that the beginning balance on October 1 2013 ( for the 2013-14 season ) , will be around 80 lakh tonnes , which is about 20 lakh tonnes more than the normal opening balance.In 2012/13 , the mills could export only a small amount of sugar due to lower international prices. You could export up to 3 million tonnes of sugar in the season from October to get rid of excess supply

World sugar Updates

LIFFE and ICE sugar traded on a positive note on Wednesday and settled 1.36 % and 1.66 % more than the rains have delayed crushing in Brazil . The U.S. government Sugar is also diverted to biofuel manufacturers to reduce the surplus. The increased production is expected in Asian countries like India , Thailand , Philippines and Pakistan.According of UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 25.2 mn tn sugar from the start of the season cane on 1 April, a 5% more than last year. The production of sugar cane main region of Brazil for the second half of September fell 23% to 2.29mn compared to 2.96mn tons in the first half of September. The ISO has estimated sugar surplus to fall to 4.5 mn tons in 2013/14 compared to 10.3 mn tn last year.

Outlook

Sugar futures are expected to trade with a negative bias as supplies comfortable along with the sale of the factories may continue to pressure prices . However, a relaxation of export rules and festive demand may support prices. Major international markets may also support prices.

Technical Outlook validity of October 17, 2013 Contract Support Unit November Resistance NCDEX Sugar Futures `/ QTL 2865-2880 2910-2925

Market highlights that the October 15, 2013 % Change Last Prev Unit . WoW days annual inter - NCDEX Spot sugar `/ QTL -3.89 -0.92 -0.03 -18.20 2906 M - NCDEX Sugar October '13 Fut ` / QTL 2840 -0.25 0.89 -4 , sugar -18.01 92 No 5 - Liffe - Dec'13 Fut $ / t 1.95 4.36 1.36 -9.14 506.9 sugar No. 11 -ICE Fut Mar '14 $ / ton 1.66 422.44 2.26 12.22 -5.75

Spread Matrix Sugar

Closing 15.2013 and October 18 -Oct -13 20 - Nov -13 20 -Dec-13 Cash -22.1 -13.1 -66.1 2906.1 18 -Oct -13 2840 0 53 44 20 - Nov -13 2893-0 20 - 9- Dec - 13 2884-0

Stock position at NCDEX warehouse, October 11, 2013 Situation Actions such as the October 10 Number of processes in action as the October 8 Delhi Quantity in process 1,331 0 1,750 0 1,099 0 1,099 Kolhapur Sangli 0 0 0 0 0 0 449 449 Solapur 0 2879 0 3298 0

Kapas

NCDEX and MCX Kapas cotton traded in November on a positive note on Tuesday and settled 0.45 % and 0.76 % higher in the rains in the cotton belt of Gujarat have delayed the arrival and even damage some crops in foot. Rupee depreciation also supported the prices.Ministry of Agriculture , in its first advance estimates of production of cereals has been linked cotton production record 35.3mn bales ( 1 bale = 170 kg ) in 2013-14 , up to 34 mn bales in the previous year .

Demand from millers and exporters of wire with the expectations of the delay in the harvest have supported prices . The government has deferred the decision to impose a 10% tax on the export of surplus cotton.

According to the ICC , cotton arrivals since the beginning of the season (October 2012- September 2013 ) until July 14 reports to 331.15 , down 1.48 percent compared with the same period last year .

Sowing Progress

According to the Ministry of Agriculture , was reported planting cotton in 114.67 ha in October 11, 2013 , compared to 117.29 last year.As has the October 4, 2013 , was reported in cotton planting AP to 21.31 hectares compared to 22.69 last year has while Gujarat was reported at 26.91 has up to 8.6 % last year . In Rajasthan , held in the 3.03 ha compared to 4.5 years passed as the September 23, 2013 .

The production and domestic consumption

Cotton Advisory Board ( CAB ) at its last meeting dated April 17, 2013 is projected cotton harvest 34 mn bales for the 2012-13 season compared with previous estimates of 33 mn bales.Mill consumption is expected to rise 22.3mn bales last year to 23.5mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5mn bales . However, the Cotton Association of India estimates differ from the CAB output pins 2012-13 cotton bales as 35.2mn May 31 6% compared to 37 3 mn bales in 2011-12.

World cotton Updates

The ICE cotton futures traded on a negative note on Wednesday and settled 0.66 % lower on favorable harvest weather in the U.S. . Prices fell last week after ICAC has projected increase in stocks of 2013-14 on expectations of reduced demand and settled 2.87 % lower wow . No new data released by the government of shutdown.The USDA weekly progress report partial harvesting USA rated good / excellent in 42% versus 44 % in the previous week. The USDA lowered monthly report forecast U.S. cotton production to 12.9 mn bales , the lowest in four years. The collection is completed by 7 % compared to 5% above week.Import demand with China storage and projection of lower output in the USDA has supported prices . China has set quotas for the import of low tariffs for 2013-14 894,00 tons , unchanged from the last year.ICAC has reduced the projected world production, but increased ending stocks projections and Campaign 2013 / 14. According to USDA acreage report , the estimate of U.S. cotton plantings has fallen by 17% since 2012 , but from March 2013 estimates.

 

Outlook

Cotton futures may trade with a positive bias on increasing crop damage fears in Andhra Pradesh due to Phailin cyclone and heavy rains in Gujarat. However, harvest pressure may limit sharp gains .

Technical Outlook validity of October 17, 2013 Contract Support Unit Resistance NCDEX Kapas April '14 Fut `/ 20 kgs 982-990 November 1010-1021 MCX Cotton Futures ` / bale 20650-20800 21100-21250

Market highlights that the October 15, 2013 % Change Last Prev Unit . day -month -year WoW NCDEX April Kapas Fut ` 20 kgs 998 0.45 -0.55 -0.55 # N / A MCX October cotton Fut ` / Bale 20.980 29.67 -0.76 -1.55 -2.05 ICE USC ​​cotton December 13 / Lbs 83.16 -0.66 1.48 -2.16 11.09 Crib seek Index 89.75 0.06 0.06 -0.61 10.46

Cotton Spread Matrix

as the October 15, 2013 Closing 31 - Oct - 13 29 - Nov -13 Dec 31 - 13 31 -Oct -13 20 980 0 -760 -780 29 -Nov- 13 20 220 0 -20 31 -Dec - 13 20200-0

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